Had a very lively and insightful conversation with a conservative last night. His insight: it's counterproductive to say the word "objective truth" in an argument any longer. It only has the effect of saying "but I really mean it!" since, in his view, liberals are all about relativism. I wouldn't disagree.
Why is this important? For conservatives to recover their movement, which had been based so much on proving the consistency of their positions with objective reality, the path forward was to tell more stories that illustrated objective truth within the more colorful lives of the subjective people all around us. Christ, he said, after all, taught in parables, not debates.
Something to this, definitely.
Monday, November 17, 2008
More microtrends
9. Pro-semites - never has Jewishness been so fashionable, with US gentiles seeking them out for marriage and participating in their customs
10. Cougars - post-menopausal women dating much younger men
11. Older dads - new dads over the age of 45 are said to be more relaxed and interested in the lives of their kids, but still parenting into their 60s
12. hard of hearing - not just an aging phenomenon; 1/3 of those are young, a result of the noisier world we live in (ex: airplanes, hair dryers, cellphones, iPods)
13. pets - the increase in pets has shot up in the same percentage as the decrease in homes with children; most of the increase generated by single women; the top 1% of pets live better than 99% of humanity
14. single women - statistically, 3% of heterosexual women will never find a mate in the US, victims of a few trends, including a rise in gay men
15. pampered parents - US parents have become more permissive: no longer letting babies cry it out, no longer spanking, no longer withdrawing privileges after children say "I hate you" or use illegal drugs
10. Cougars - post-menopausal women dating much younger men
11. Older dads - new dads over the age of 45 are said to be more relaxed and interested in the lives of their kids, but still parenting into their 60s
12. hard of hearing - not just an aging phenomenon; 1/3 of those are young, a result of the noisier world we live in (ex: airplanes, hair dryers, cellphones, iPods)
13. pets - the increase in pets has shot up in the same percentage as the decrease in homes with children; most of the increase generated by single women; the top 1% of pets live better than 99% of humanity
14. single women - statistically, 3% of heterosexual women will never find a mate in the US, victims of a few trends, including a rise in gay men
15. pampered parents - US parents have become more permissive: no longer letting babies cry it out, no longer spanking, no longer withdrawing privileges after children say "I hate you" or use illegal drugs
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Microtrends by Mark Penn, 2007
I checked out this audiobook from the library - it's fascinating. Penn, who assisted Bill Clinton's campaigns and coined the term soccer moms, claims there are 70 microgroups in the US who account for more than 1% of the population and represent future changes in society. Businesses and politicians who can meet their needs will prosper.
Some examples:
1. Moderate Muslims - Penn says the typical American Muslim looks like the typical American in terms of conservative/liberal breakdown, religious adherence, education. This is different than in Europe, where Muslims are markedly more fanatical, where 1 in 7 say suicide bombing is OK and more than half don't believe Arabs flew plans into the WTC.
2. Internet marrieds - the stigma with online dating has waned, and more people -- especially urban liberals -- are turning to the Internet to find the One.
3. Ardent amazons - these are highly physical women, typically 5'7" and 175 lbs, who are thriving in professions such as firefighting, law enforcement, and the military. Surprisingly, 75% are conservative and most are rural.
4. Sun haters - this is the new anti-tobacco campaign; they go to extreme lengths in clothing to protect against sun exposure, because of fears that skin cancer will overtake lung cancer as the #1 cancer
5. Latino Protestants - though 70% of Latino immigrants are Catholics, a huge number are Protestant; not mainline, but Pentecostal. The Pentecostals have a sophisticated marketing and precinct machine much like the Democrats of the 1800s.
6. 30 Winkers - they sleep less than 6 hours a night routinely, due to work, long commutes, kids, or health problems. As a result, they demand late-night services.
7. Extreme commuters - they commute longer than 1.5 hours each way in order to enjoy a rural or remote lifestyle on the weekends
8. Commuter couples - Usually high-end professionals, they live in different places Monday through Friday but fly home to be together on the weekends - and report high marital happiness and low infidelity.
more to come...
Some examples:
1. Moderate Muslims - Penn says the typical American Muslim looks like the typical American in terms of conservative/liberal breakdown, religious adherence, education. This is different than in Europe, where Muslims are markedly more fanatical, where 1 in 7 say suicide bombing is OK and more than half don't believe Arabs flew plans into the WTC.
2. Internet marrieds - the stigma with online dating has waned, and more people -- especially urban liberals -- are turning to the Internet to find the One.
3. Ardent amazons - these are highly physical women, typically 5'7" and 175 lbs, who are thriving in professions such as firefighting, law enforcement, and the military. Surprisingly, 75% are conservative and most are rural.
4. Sun haters - this is the new anti-tobacco campaign; they go to extreme lengths in clothing to protect against sun exposure, because of fears that skin cancer will overtake lung cancer as the #1 cancer
5. Latino Protestants - though 70% of Latino immigrants are Catholics, a huge number are Protestant; not mainline, but Pentecostal. The Pentecostals have a sophisticated marketing and precinct machine much like the Democrats of the 1800s.
6. 30 Winkers - they sleep less than 6 hours a night routinely, due to work, long commutes, kids, or health problems. As a result, they demand late-night services.
7. Extreme commuters - they commute longer than 1.5 hours each way in order to enjoy a rural or remote lifestyle on the weekends
8. Commuter couples - Usually high-end professionals, they live in different places Monday through Friday but fly home to be together on the weekends - and report high marital happiness and low infidelity.
more to come...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Freakonomics
I just listened to a great book by renegade economist Stephen Levitt. An oldy but goody - I think it came out in 2004. He became famous for making the connection between the liberalization of abortion in 1973 and the dramatic drop in crime rates in the 1990s - claiming that future criminals had been aborted en masse.
Economists are great like that. They say things people are unwilling to say.
It also had a preplexing chapter on the black-white education and earnings gap, as well as the 8 things that parents do that have a statistical outcome on child educational performance. Some very surprising results. Stay-at-home mothering, for example, had no impact.
Economists are great like that. They say things people are unwilling to say.
It also had a preplexing chapter on the black-white education and earnings gap, as well as the 8 things that parents do that have a statistical outcome on child educational performance. Some very surprising results. Stay-at-home mothering, for example, had no impact.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Five Lessons Learned for 2012
1. Get lots of small donations.
2. You don't need to be as specific as Bill Clinton was. You can run a whole election being general, giving good speeches, and win.
3. Stay poised and presidential, gracious. You don't need to go negative to win.
4. Endorsements do count. Line them up early (Kennedy) and late (Powell).
5. You don't need to be a moderate to win. You can be an extremist and have lots of past baggage, as long as you downplay it.
2. You don't need to be as specific as Bill Clinton was. You can run a whole election being general, giving good speeches, and win.
3. Stay poised and presidential, gracious. You don't need to go negative to win.
4. Endorsements do count. Line them up early (Kennedy) and late (Powell).
5. You don't need to be a moderate to win. You can be an extremist and have lots of past baggage, as long as you downplay it.
Why Obama Won
Pundits are saying he had this great fundraising campaign, and McCain had missteps. I think it's even simpler than that. I think people had two things in their minds:
- Obama looks more fit to confront our problems. He's young, handsome, ambitious. McCain is old and broken, something we're reminded of every time he tries to raise his arms.
- Give the black guy a chance.
Of course the pundits can't be this blunt on TV.
- Obama looks more fit to confront our problems. He's young, handsome, ambitious. McCain is old and broken, something we're reminded of every time he tries to raise his arms.
- Give the black guy a chance.
Of course the pundits can't be this blunt on TV.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Blowout
The media are falling over themselves finding every clue possible that, in early county returns, that Obama is going to overperform the polls and the Democrats obtain a supermajority. Maybe the very original post I had on the topic, when Obama first got the nomination, and I said McCain would get 5 states, maybe it will be closer to this if all this hype comes true.
Then hopefully it will re-energize pro-lifers to get more engaged than they've even been before.
Then hopefully it will re-energize pro-lifers to get more engaged than they've even been before.
Eve of Obama
Today we vote. The perception since McCain halted his campaign to focus on the financial crisis has been that Obama will win. The state-by-state polls project that he will win by a wide margin -- 318 electoral votes. The general feeling you get is that he will win, but that McCain is closing and it'll be closer than you'd expect.
I should be happy, right, being a progessive? The feeling among my liberal friends is that this is going to be a big whoosh of fresh air after years of war, expanded presidential powers, lower standing in the world, and a recent recession. There is the added hope that a supermajority in Congress will ensure any pro-abortion justice will be confirmed no problem, as well as a glut of open judge positions.
But what is a Catholic to think? Time for four years of re-engaging in public life like never before. And praying for Obama's conversion. I say McCain tops 200 electoral votes.
I should be happy, right, being a progessive? The feeling among my liberal friends is that this is going to be a big whoosh of fresh air after years of war, expanded presidential powers, lower standing in the world, and a recent recession. There is the added hope that a supermajority in Congress will ensure any pro-abortion justice will be confirmed no problem, as well as a glut of open judge positions.
But what is a Catholic to think? Time for four years of re-engaging in public life like never before. And praying for Obama's conversion. I say McCain tops 200 electoral votes.
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