McCain up by 3 or 4

We will see if Palin survives her first TV interview. Then, how McCain does in the first debate. Those two successes would be required to sustain this bump.

I think Obama needs to keep painting McCain as Republican establishment. But that alone won't do. He needs to shift the conversation away from Palin by coming up with something radical and substantial, like an economic plan to put American businesses and the dollar back in first place. That would do it, but it wouldn't satisfy the leftist base.