Here's my guess at the moment:
November 2008: Obama sweeps all but 5 states. The Democrats control Congress by a wide margin.
2009: The economy is in recession with high inflation. Obama accelerates the withdrawal from Iraq. This strengthens the dollar and eases inflation.
2010: Obama appoints a Supreme Court Justice. He introduces nationalized medicine. This mobilizes the consevative base of the Republicans, who win back seats in the mid-term elections.
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