The research says men follow men disproportionately, unlike in other social networks where everyone follows women. And on Twitter, the average tweet per lifetime is still just one. 10% of Twitter users create 90% of the traffic.
***************
New Twitter Research: Men Follow Men and Nobody Tweets
2:15 PM Monday June 1, 2009
by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski
Tags:Gender, Social media, Technology
Twitter has attracted tremendous attention from the media and celebrities, but there is much uncertainty about Twitter's purpose. Is Twitter a communications service for friends and groups, a means of expressing yourself freely, or simply a marketing tool?
We examined the activity of a random sample of 300,000 Twitter users in May 2009 to find out how people are using the service. We then compared our findings to activity on other social networks and online content production venues. Our findings are very surprising.
Of our sample (300,542 users, collected in May 2009), 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only 60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one friend (when these networks were at a similar level of development). This suggests that actual users (as opposed to the media at large) understand how Twitter works.
Although men and women follow a similar number of Twitter users, men have 15% more followers than women. Men also have more reciprocated relationships, in which two users follow each other. This "follower split" suggests that women are driven less by followers than men, or have more stringent thresholds for reciprocating relationships. This is intriguing, especially given that females hold a slight majority on Twitter: we found that men comprise 45% of Twitter users, while women represent 55%. To get this figure, we cross-referenced users' "real names" against a database of 40,000 strongly gendered names.
Even more interesting is who follows whom. We found that an average man is almost twice more likely to follow another man than a woman. Similarly, an average woman is 25% more likely to follow a man than a woman. Finally, an average man is 40% more likely to be followed by another man than by a woman. These results cannot be explained by different tweeting activity - both men and women tweet at the same rate.
These results are stunning given what previous research has found in the context of online social networks. On a typical online social network, most of the activity is focused around women - men follow content produced by women they do and do not know, and women follow content produced by women they knowi. Generally, men receive comparatively little attention from other men or from women. We wonder to what extent this pattern of results arises because men and women find the content produced by other men on Twitter more compelling than on a typical social network, and men find the content produced by women less compelling (because of a lack of photo sharing, detailed biographies, etc.).
Twitter's usage patterns are also very different from a typical on-line social network. A typical Twitter user contributes very rarely. Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user is one. This translates into over half of Twitter users tweeting less than once every 74 days.
At the same time there is a small contingent of users who are very active. Specifically, the top 10% of prolific Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets. On a typical online social network, the top 10% of users account for 30% of all production. To put Twitter in perspective, consider an unlikely analogue - Wikipedia. There, the top 15% of the most prolific editors account for 90% of Wikipedia's edits ii. In other words, the pattern of contributions on Twitter is more concentrated among the few top users than is the case on Wikipedia, even though Wikipedia is clearly not a communications tool. This implies that Twitter's resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network.
Bill Heil is a graduating MBA student at Harvard Business School, and will start at Adobe Systems as a Product Manager in the fall. Mikolaj Jan Piskorski is an Assistant Professor of Strategy at HBS who teaches a Second Year elective entitled Competing with Social Networks. Bill undertook research for parts of this article in the context of that class.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Robert Gibbs on Obama's birth certificate question
This guy is good.
http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=1155201977&bctid=24410823001
http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=1155201977&bctid=24410823001
Monday, June 1, 2009
25% women at religious colleges aborted
Wow.
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Study: Private Religious School Students More Likely to Have Abortion Than Public
by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
June 1, 2009
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) -- A new study finds that women students at private, religious schools are not less likely than their counterparts at public schools to have an abortion. In fact, sociologist Amy Adamczyk published an article in the June issue of the Journal of Health and Social Behavior saying they are more likely.
Adamczyk, an assistant professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the Graduate Center, City University of New York, conducted the study.
While previous research has investigated the link between religion and abortion attitudes, fewer studies have explored religion's impact on abortion behavior.
"This research suggests that young, unmarried women are confronted with a number of social, financial and health-related factors that can make it difficult for them to act according to religious values when deciding whether to keep or abort a pregnancy," she said.
The researcher noted that shame in finding out that a religious school student is pregnant could result in a higher abortion rate.
"Religious school attendance is not necessarily indicative of conservative religious beliefs because students attend these schools for a variety of reasons," Adamczyk said. "These schools tend to generate high levels of commitment and strong social ties among their students and families, so abortion rates could be higher due to the potential for increased feelings of shame related to an extramarital birth."
Despite Adamczyk's finding that rates of reported abortions were higher for young women educated at private religious schools, the type of religious school was not a factor: Catholic schools had similar rates as other religious schools.
Results revealed no significant link between a young woman's reported decision to have an abortion and her personal religiosity, as defined by her religious involvement, frequency of prayer and perception of religion's importance.
Despite the absence of a link between personal religious devotion and abortion, religious affiliation did have some important influence. Adamczyk found that conservative Protestants were the least likely to report having an abortion, less likely than mainline Protestants, Catholics and women with non-Christian religious affiliations.
Regarding the impact of the religious involvement of a woman's peers, Adamczyk found no significant influence. However, Adamczyk did find that women who attended school with conservative Protestants were more likely to decide to keep their baby if pregnant in their 20s than during their teen years.
"The values of conservative Protestant classmates seem to have an abortion limiting effect on women in their 20s, but not in their teens, presumably because the educational and economic costs of motherhood are reduced as young women grow older," Adamczyk said.
Adamczyk examined how personal religious involvement, schoolmate religious involvement and school type influenced the pregnancy decisions of a sample of 1,504 unmarried and never-divorced women age 26 and younger from 125 different schools. The women ranged in age from 14 to 26 at the time they discovered they were pregnant.
Twenty-five percent of women in the sample reported having an abortion, which Adamczyk considers lower than the likely actual number.
Data for this study came from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a three-wave school-based study of the health-related behaviors of students in grades 7 to 12 at the time of the first wave. Adamczyk analyzed data from the first and third waves of Add Health, the first wave taking place from 1994 to 1995 and the third wave being completed between 2001 and 2002.
The article is "Understanding the Effects of Personal and School Religiosity on the Decision to Abort a Premarital Pregnancy."
The Journal of Health and Social Behavior is a quarterly journal of the American Sociological Association.
http://www.lifenews.com/nat5110.html
*****************************
Study: Private Religious School Students More Likely to Have Abortion Than Public
by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
June 1, 2009
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) -- A new study finds that women students at private, religious schools are not less likely than their counterparts at public schools to have an abortion. In fact, sociologist Amy Adamczyk published an article in the June issue of the Journal of Health and Social Behavior saying they are more likely.
Adamczyk, an assistant professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the Graduate Center, City University of New York, conducted the study.
While previous research has investigated the link between religion and abortion attitudes, fewer studies have explored religion's impact on abortion behavior.
"This research suggests that young, unmarried women are confronted with a number of social, financial and health-related factors that can make it difficult for them to act according to religious values when deciding whether to keep or abort a pregnancy," she said.
The researcher noted that shame in finding out that a religious school student is pregnant could result in a higher abortion rate.
"Religious school attendance is not necessarily indicative of conservative religious beliefs because students attend these schools for a variety of reasons," Adamczyk said. "These schools tend to generate high levels of commitment and strong social ties among their students and families, so abortion rates could be higher due to the potential for increased feelings of shame related to an extramarital birth."
Despite Adamczyk's finding that rates of reported abortions were higher for young women educated at private religious schools, the type of religious school was not a factor: Catholic schools had similar rates as other religious schools.
Results revealed no significant link between a young woman's reported decision to have an abortion and her personal religiosity, as defined by her religious involvement, frequency of prayer and perception of religion's importance.
Despite the absence of a link between personal religious devotion and abortion, religious affiliation did have some important influence. Adamczyk found that conservative Protestants were the least likely to report having an abortion, less likely than mainline Protestants, Catholics and women with non-Christian religious affiliations.
Regarding the impact of the religious involvement of a woman's peers, Adamczyk found no significant influence. However, Adamczyk did find that women who attended school with conservative Protestants were more likely to decide to keep their baby if pregnant in their 20s than during their teen years.
"The values of conservative Protestant classmates seem to have an abortion limiting effect on women in their 20s, but not in their teens, presumably because the educational and economic costs of motherhood are reduced as young women grow older," Adamczyk said.
Adamczyk examined how personal religious involvement, schoolmate religious involvement and school type influenced the pregnancy decisions of a sample of 1,504 unmarried and never-divorced women age 26 and younger from 125 different schools. The women ranged in age from 14 to 26 at the time they discovered they were pregnant.
Twenty-five percent of women in the sample reported having an abortion, which Adamczyk considers lower than the likely actual number.
Data for this study came from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a three-wave school-based study of the health-related behaviors of students in grades 7 to 12 at the time of the first wave. Adamczyk analyzed data from the first and third waves of Add Health, the first wave taking place from 1994 to 1995 and the third wave being completed between 2001 and 2002.
The article is "Understanding the Effects of Personal and School Religiosity on the Decision to Abort a Premarital Pregnancy."
The Journal of Health and Social Behavior is a quarterly journal of the American Sociological Association.
http://www.lifenews.com/nat5110.html
Tiller on using ultrasound in abortions
Usually they don't like the women to see what's happening to their babies.
**********************************************
June 1, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) – Joe Scheidler, the founder of Pro-Life Action League and longtime pro-life activist, today issued a statement denouncing the slaying of Kansas late-term abortionist George Tiller. Tiller was shot dead Sunday morning as he was serving as an usher at his church.
In condemning the murder Scheidler also recalled a chance encounter he had with the abortionist, in which he shared a taxi-cab ride with him on the way to a pro-abortion conference.
“We deplore the killing of George Tiller on Sunday morning," said Scheidler.
"It has always been my philosophy that we convert abortionists. As activists committed to saving lives, we vigorously oppose violence."
Scheidler recalled how he once shared a taxi with Dr. Tiller as both were headed from the airport in New Orleans to the National Abortion Federation Convention. Scheidler was attending in order to gather information about the pro-abortion movement.
"Tiller apparently recognized me, but did not recall that I was a pro-life activist. He assumed I was another abortionist attending the conference," said Scheidler. "He enthusiastically extolled the value of the ultrasound in performing abortions, and invited me to visit his clinic in Wichita."
The following day Scheidler attended Tiller's presentation on the use of ultrasound. By then the doctor had realized that Scheidler was a pro-life leader, and refused to proceed with his presentation until Scheidler left the room.
"Having sat and talked with George Tiller, I probably feel a little more connection with him than many other pro-lifers might," said Scheidler. "I am adamantly opposed to what he did for a living. But I believe that anyone can come to the truth. Tiller deserved the chance to turn away from the evil of abortion. I cannot condone the taking of his life."
**********************************************
June 1, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) – Joe Scheidler, the founder of Pro-Life Action League and longtime pro-life activist, today issued a statement denouncing the slaying of Kansas late-term abortionist George Tiller. Tiller was shot dead Sunday morning as he was serving as an usher at his church.
In condemning the murder Scheidler also recalled a chance encounter he had with the abortionist, in which he shared a taxi-cab ride with him on the way to a pro-abortion conference.
“We deplore the killing of George Tiller on Sunday morning," said Scheidler.
"It has always been my philosophy that we convert abortionists. As activists committed to saving lives, we vigorously oppose violence."
Scheidler recalled how he once shared a taxi with Dr. Tiller as both were headed from the airport in New Orleans to the National Abortion Federation Convention. Scheidler was attending in order to gather information about the pro-abortion movement.
"Tiller apparently recognized me, but did not recall that I was a pro-life activist. He assumed I was another abortionist attending the conference," said Scheidler. "He enthusiastically extolled the value of the ultrasound in performing abortions, and invited me to visit his clinic in Wichita."
The following day Scheidler attended Tiller's presentation on the use of ultrasound. By then the doctor had realized that Scheidler was a pro-life leader, and refused to proceed with his presentation until Scheidler left the room.
"Having sat and talked with George Tiller, I probably feel a little more connection with him than many other pro-lifers might," said Scheidler. "I am adamantly opposed to what he did for a living. But I believe that anyone can come to the truth. Tiller deserved the chance to turn away from the evil of abortion. I cannot condone the taking of his life."
83 bishops vs Obama
Here's the list of bishops who opposed the President coming to Notre Dame.
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SOUTH BEND, Indiana, May 6, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Following is an alphabetical list of bishops who have so far expressed disapproval of the University of Notre Dame's invitation to President Obama to give the commencement speech and receive an honorary law degree May 17. Included are links to the original source as well as LifeSiteNews.com coverage.
Current count: 83 bishops
Bishop Joseph V. Adamec - Altoona-Johnstown, PA
Statement: http://www.ajdiocese.org/documents//April_8__2009_-_Notre_Dame_University.pdf
LSN http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050718.html
Bishop John D'Arcy - Fort Wayne-South Bend, IN
Statement: http://www.diocesefwsb.org/COMMUNICATIONS/obama.htm
LSN Report: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032408.html
Bishop Samuel Aquila - Fargo, ND
Statement: http://www.fargodiocese.org/Bishop/Homilies/StatementNotreDameLtr4-5-09.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040906.html
Bishop Gregory Aymond - Austin, TX
Statement: http://www.austindiocese.org/newsletter_issue_view.php?id=211
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032707.html
Bishop Robert Baker - Birmingham, AL
Statement: http://www.ewtn.com/library/BISHOPS/bpbakernd.HTM
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Gerald Barbarito - Palm Beach, FL
Statement: http://www.diocesepb.org/bishop/Acrobat_files/Bishop
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09041406.html
Bishop Leonard Blair - Toledo, OH
Statement: http://proecclesia.blogspot.com/2009/04/bishop-blair-responds-to-notre-dame.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Cardinal Anthony Bevilacqua (Archbishop Emeritus) - Philadelphia, PA
Statement: http://patricknovecosky.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/cardinal-bevilacqua-addresses-notre-dame-controversy/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Bishop Lawrence Brandt - Greensburg, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofgreensburg.org/DH/Pages/NotreDamestatement.aspx
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Archbishop Daniel Buechlein - Indianapolis, IN
Statement: http://www.archindy.org/criterion/local/2009/04-10/notredame.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Fabian Bruskewitz - Lincoln, NE
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/News/tabid/54/ctl/Details/mid/452/ItemID/495/Default.aspx
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040906.html
Archbishop Eusebius Beltran - Oklahoma City, OK
Statement: http://newsok.com/speech-by-obama-faces-catholic-foes/article/3357948
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040204.html
Auxiliary Bishop Oscar Cantú - San Antonio, TX
Statement: http://www.archdiosa.org/txtfiles/attachment_153.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop-Elect Robert Carlson - St. Louis
Statement: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/religion/story/5C2E18FE76B5941C862575B7000DBD0A?OpenDocument
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Archbishop Charles Chaput - Denver, CO
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042905.html
Bishop Paul Coakley - Salina, KS
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Auxiliary Bishop James Conley - Denver
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Bishop Edward Cullen - Allentown, PA
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop Frank J. Dewane - Venice
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051408.html
Bishop Nicholas Di Marzio - Brooklyn, NY
Statement: http://thetablet.org/05092009/columns_bishop.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050718.html
Cardinal Daniel DiNardo - Houston, TX
Statement: http://www.texascatholicherald.org/columnists.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032717.html
Archbishop Timothy Dolan - New York, NY
Statement: http://www.620wtmj.com/podcasts/charliesykes/sundayinsight/42081097.html?video=pop&t=a
Bishop Thomas Doran - Rockford, IL
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/470/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040204.html
Auxiliary Bishop John Dougherty - Scranton, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofscranton.org/News/ScrantonBishopsProtestNotreDameDecisionApril2,2009.asp
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040302.html
Bishop Robert Finn - Kansas City-St. Joseph, MO
Statement: http://catholickey.blogspot.com/2009/04/we-are-at-war-bishop-finns-gospel-of.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Roger Foys - Covington, KY
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Joseph Galante - Camden, NJ
Statement: http://www.camdendiocese.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1282:catholic-a-mere-label&catid=33:press-releases-a-latest-news
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop Victor Galeone - St. Augustine, FL
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042211.html
Bishop John Gaydos - Jefferson City
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050814.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Cardinal Francis George - Chicago, IL; President, USCCB
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033106.html
Bishop Gerald Gettelfinger - Evansville, IN
Statement: http://www.themessageonline.org/local/2009/04-17/bishop.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop José Gomez - San Antonio, TX
Statement: http://www.archdiosa.org/txtfiles/attachment_153.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Auxiliary Bishop Roger Gries - Cleveland, Ohio
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051101.html
Bishop Bernard Harrington - Winona, MN
Statement: http://www.dow.org/documents/09mayweb.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Robert Hermann - St. Louis, MO
Statement: http://stlouisreview.com/article/2009-04-30/i-thought-you-should-know
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop William Higi - Lafayette, IN
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop Alfred Hughes - New Orleans, LA
Statement: http://blog.nola.com/elections_impact/2009/04/Hughes%20letter.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop Michael O. Jackels - Wichita, KS
Statement: http://cdowk.org/advanceonline/2009/04/09/bishop-jackels-letter-to-notre-dame/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050105.html
Bishop Sam Jacobs - Houma-Thibodaux, LA
Statement: http://www.htdiocese.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=hUtmQlVJbos%3d&tabid=565
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Bishop James V. Johnston - Springfield-Cape Girardeau, MO
http://home.catholicweb.com/diocspfdcape/index.cfm/NewsItem?id=263157
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Peter Jugis - Charlotte, NC
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop Joseph Latino - Jackson, MS
Statement: http://nems360.com/pages/full_story?page_label=news&id=2300764-Mississippi+bishop+opposes+Obama+commencement+speech&widget=push&article-Mississippi%20bishop%20opposes%20Obama%20commencement%20speech
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop John LeVoir - New Ulm, MN
Statement: http://www.dnu.org/bishop/041309statement.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html
Bishop Jerome Listecki - La Crosse, WI
Statement: http://www.dioceseoflacrosse.com/ministry_resources/ministries/resources/Notre%20Dame%20Invitation.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040711.html
Bishop William E. Lori - Bridgeport, CT
Statement: http://www.bridgeportdiocese.com/folder_bridgedocs/FCC%204-4-09.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop Paul Loverde - Arlington, VA
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/522/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html
Bishop George Lucas - Springfield, IL
Statement: http://www.dio.org/bishop-lucas-weekly-column/from-east-to-west-we-must-witness-to-the-truth.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Robert Lynch - St. Petersburg, FL
Statement: http://bishopsblog.dosp.org/2009/03/27/week-end-update/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Bishop Joseph Martino - Scranton, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofscranton.org/News/ScrantonBishopsProtestNotreDameDecisionApril2,2009.asp
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040302.html
Bishop John McCormack - Manchester, NH
Statement: http://www.catholicnh.org/public-issues/fcn-archive/und/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Dale Melczek - GARY, IN
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Robert Morlino - Madison, WI
Statement: http://www.catholiccitizens.org/views/contentview.asp?c=49889
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Bishop William Murphy - Rockville Centre, NY
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050105.html
Bishop George Murry - Youngstown, OH
Statement: http://cathexpo.org/articledetails.aspx?articleid=240
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop John J. Myers - Newark, NJ
Statement: http://www.rcan.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=feature.display&feature_ID=1299
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Archbishop Joseph Naumann - Kansas City, KS
Statement: http://www.theleaven.com/columnist/archbishop_column.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042709.html
Bishop R. Walker Nickless - Sioux City, IA
Statement: http://www.catholic.org/politics/story.php?id=32936
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Archbishop John C. Nienstedt - St. Paul-Minneapolis, MN
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/460/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Archbishop Edwin O'Brien - Baltimore, MD
Statement: http://www.catholicreview.org/subpages/storyarchnew.aspx?action=5978
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Thomas Olmsted - Phoenix, AZ
Statement: http://www.americanpapist.com/2009/03/exclusive-bp-olmsted-tells-nd.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032605.html
Bishop Michael Pfeifer - San Angelo, TX
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Archbishop Daniel E. Pilarczyk - Cincinnati, OH
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/514/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Reymundo Pena - Brownsville, TX
Statement: http://www.cdob.org/bishop/column/2009/4-24-09.htm
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop Glen Provost - Lake Charles, LA
Statement: http://live.lcdiocese.org/bishop-provost/writings/285-bishop-provost-comments-on-notre-dame-university-decision.html LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop David Ricken - Green Bay, WI
Statement: http://www.thecompassnews.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=345:notre-dames-quandary
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Cardinal Justin Rigali - Philadelphia, PA; Chairman, USCCB Pro-Life Committee
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042803.html
Bishop Kevin Rhoades - Harrisburg, PA
Statement:http://www.catholic.org/politics/story.php?id=33146
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Bishop Alexander Sample - Marquette, MI
Statement: http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=15630
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Michael Sheridan - Colorado Springs, CO
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051513.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Bishop Edward J. Slattery - Tulsa, OK
Statement: http://www.dioceseoftulsa.org/article.asp?nID=907
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Bishop John Smith - Trenton, NJ
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051101.html
Bishop Richard Stika - Knoxville, TN
Statement: http://www.dioceseofknoxville.org/?news=3585&menu=1462&level=1
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09041406.html
Bishop Anthony Taylor - Little Rock, AR
Statement: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/note.php?note_id=66338251686
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop George Thomas - Helena, MT
Statement: http://www.diocesehelena.org/thomas/050109%20letter.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Bishop Donald Trautman - Erie, PA
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051512.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Bishop Robert Vasa - Baker, OR
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop Allen Vigneron - Detroi, MI
Statement: http://www.aodonline.org/AODOnline/News+++Publications+2203/Press+Releases+2303/2009+16871/090429notredame.htm
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Michael Warfel - Great Falls-Billings, MT
Statement: http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200905011500/NEWS01/90501007
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043009.html
Bishop Thomas Wenski - Orlando, FL
Statement: http://www.orlandodiocese.org/who_we_are/bishop_wenski/columns/200904_und.php
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop Donald Wuerl - Washington, D.C.
Statement: http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/godingovernment/2009/04/dc_archbishop_nips_georgetown_for_biden_event.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042709.html
Bishop Emeritus John Yanta - Amarillo, TX
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051407.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051408.html
Bishop David Zubick - Pittsburgh, PA
Statement: http://www.pittsburghcatholic.org/newsarticles_more.phtml?id=2466
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html%20
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SOUTH BEND, Indiana, May 6, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Following is an alphabetical list of bishops who have so far expressed disapproval of the University of Notre Dame's invitation to President Obama to give the commencement speech and receive an honorary law degree May 17. Included are links to the original source as well as LifeSiteNews.com coverage.
Current count: 83 bishops
Bishop Joseph V. Adamec - Altoona-Johnstown, PA
Statement: http://www.ajdiocese.org/documents//April_8__2009_-_Notre_Dame_University.pdf
LSN http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050718.html
Bishop John D'Arcy - Fort Wayne-South Bend, IN
Statement: http://www.diocesefwsb.org/COMMUNICATIONS/obama.htm
LSN Report: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032408.html
Bishop Samuel Aquila - Fargo, ND
Statement: http://www.fargodiocese.org/Bishop/Homilies/StatementNotreDameLtr4-5-09.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040906.html
Bishop Gregory Aymond - Austin, TX
Statement: http://www.austindiocese.org/newsletter_issue_view.php?id=211
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032707.html
Bishop Robert Baker - Birmingham, AL
Statement: http://www.ewtn.com/library/BISHOPS/bpbakernd.HTM
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Gerald Barbarito - Palm Beach, FL
Statement: http://www.diocesepb.org/bishop/Acrobat_files/Bishop
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09041406.html
Bishop Leonard Blair - Toledo, OH
Statement: http://proecclesia.blogspot.com/2009/04/bishop-blair-responds-to-notre-dame.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Cardinal Anthony Bevilacqua (Archbishop Emeritus) - Philadelphia, PA
Statement: http://patricknovecosky.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/cardinal-bevilacqua-addresses-notre-dame-controversy/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Bishop Lawrence Brandt - Greensburg, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofgreensburg.org/DH/Pages/NotreDamestatement.aspx
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Archbishop Daniel Buechlein - Indianapolis, IN
Statement: http://www.archindy.org/criterion/local/2009/04-10/notredame.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Fabian Bruskewitz - Lincoln, NE
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/News/tabid/54/ctl/Details/mid/452/ItemID/495/Default.aspx
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040906.html
Archbishop Eusebius Beltran - Oklahoma City, OK
Statement: http://newsok.com/speech-by-obama-faces-catholic-foes/article/3357948
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040204.html
Auxiliary Bishop Oscar Cantú - San Antonio, TX
Statement: http://www.archdiosa.org/txtfiles/attachment_153.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop-Elect Robert Carlson - St. Louis
Statement: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/religion/story/5C2E18FE76B5941C862575B7000DBD0A?OpenDocument
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Archbishop Charles Chaput - Denver, CO
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042905.html
Bishop Paul Coakley - Salina, KS
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Auxiliary Bishop James Conley - Denver
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Bishop Edward Cullen - Allentown, PA
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop Frank J. Dewane - Venice
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051408.html
Bishop Nicholas Di Marzio - Brooklyn, NY
Statement: http://thetablet.org/05092009/columns_bishop.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050718.html
Cardinal Daniel DiNardo - Houston, TX
Statement: http://www.texascatholicherald.org/columnists.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032717.html
Archbishop Timothy Dolan - New York, NY
Statement: http://www.620wtmj.com/podcasts/charliesykes/sundayinsight/42081097.html?video=pop&t=a
Bishop Thomas Doran - Rockford, IL
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/470/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040204.html
Auxiliary Bishop John Dougherty - Scranton, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofscranton.org/News/ScrantonBishopsProtestNotreDameDecisionApril2,2009.asp
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040302.html
Bishop Robert Finn - Kansas City-St. Joseph, MO
Statement: http://catholickey.blogspot.com/2009/04/we-are-at-war-bishop-finns-gospel-of.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Roger Foys - Covington, KY
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Joseph Galante - Camden, NJ
Statement: http://www.camdendiocese.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1282:catholic-a-mere-label&catid=33:press-releases-a-latest-news
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop Victor Galeone - St. Augustine, FL
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042211.html
Bishop John Gaydos - Jefferson City
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050814.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Cardinal Francis George - Chicago, IL; President, USCCB
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033106.html
Bishop Gerald Gettelfinger - Evansville, IN
Statement: http://www.themessageonline.org/local/2009/04-17/bishop.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop José Gomez - San Antonio, TX
Statement: http://www.archdiosa.org/txtfiles/attachment_153.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Auxiliary Bishop Roger Gries - Cleveland, Ohio
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051101.html
Bishop Bernard Harrington - Winona, MN
Statement: http://www.dow.org/documents/09mayweb.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Robert Hermann - St. Louis, MO
Statement: http://stlouisreview.com/article/2009-04-30/i-thought-you-should-know
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop William Higi - Lafayette, IN
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop Alfred Hughes - New Orleans, LA
Statement: http://blog.nola.com/elections_impact/2009/04/Hughes%20letter.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop Michael O. Jackels - Wichita, KS
Statement: http://cdowk.org/advanceonline/2009/04/09/bishop-jackels-letter-to-notre-dame/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050105.html
Bishop Sam Jacobs - Houma-Thibodaux, LA
Statement: http://www.htdiocese.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=hUtmQlVJbos%3d&tabid=565
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050815.html
Bishop James V. Johnston - Springfield-Cape Girardeau, MO
http://home.catholicweb.com/diocspfdcape/index.cfm/NewsItem?id=263157
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Peter Jugis - Charlotte, NC
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop Joseph Latino - Jackson, MS
Statement: http://nems360.com/pages/full_story?page_label=news&id=2300764-Mississippi+bishop+opposes+Obama+commencement+speech&widget=push&article-Mississippi%20bishop%20opposes%20Obama%20commencement%20speech
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop John LeVoir - New Ulm, MN
Statement: http://www.dnu.org/bishop/041309statement.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html
Bishop Jerome Listecki - La Crosse, WI
Statement: http://www.dioceseoflacrosse.com/ministry_resources/ministries/resources/Notre%20Dame%20Invitation.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040711.html
Bishop William E. Lori - Bridgeport, CT
Statement: http://www.bridgeportdiocese.com/folder_bridgedocs/FCC%204-4-09.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop Paul Loverde - Arlington, VA
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/522/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html
Bishop George Lucas - Springfield, IL
Statement: http://www.dio.org/bishop-lucas-weekly-column/from-east-to-west-we-must-witness-to-the-truth.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Robert Lynch - St. Petersburg, FL
Statement: http://bishopsblog.dosp.org/2009/03/27/week-end-update/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Bishop Joseph Martino - Scranton, PA
Statement: http://www.dioceseofscranton.org/News/ScrantonBishopsProtestNotreDameDecisionApril2,2009.asp
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040302.html
Bishop John McCormack - Manchester, NH
Statement: http://www.catholicnh.org/public-issues/fcn-archive/und/
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043004.html
Bishop Dale Melczek - GARY, IN
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Robert Morlino - Madison, WI
Statement: http://www.catholiccitizens.org/views/contentview.asp?c=49889
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Bishop William Murphy - Rockville Centre, NY
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050105.html
Bishop George Murry - Youngstown, OH
Statement: http://cathexpo.org/articledetails.aspx?articleid=240
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Archbishop John J. Myers - Newark, NJ
Statement: http://www.rcan.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=feature.display&feature_ID=1299
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Archbishop Joseph Naumann - Kansas City, KS
Statement: http://www.theleaven.com/columnist/archbishop_column.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042709.html
Bishop R. Walker Nickless - Sioux City, IA
Statement: http://www.catholic.org/politics/story.php?id=32936
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Archbishop John C. Nienstedt - St. Paul-Minneapolis, MN
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/460/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09033103.html
Archbishop Edwin O'Brien - Baltimore, MD
Statement: http://www.catholicreview.org/subpages/storyarchnew.aspx?action=5978
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Thomas Olmsted - Phoenix, AZ
Statement: http://www.americanpapist.com/2009/03/exclusive-bp-olmsted-tells-nd.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/mar/09032605.html
Bishop Michael Pfeifer - San Angelo, TX
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Archbishop Daniel E. Pilarczyk - Cincinnati, OH
Statement: http://www.cardinalnewmansociety.org/CardinalNewmanSociety/tabid/36/ctl/Details/mid/435/ItemID/514/Default.aspx LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Bishop Reymundo Pena - Brownsville, TX
Statement: http://www.cdob.org/bishop/column/2009/4-24-09.htm
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050403.html
Bishop Glen Provost - Lake Charles, LA
Statement: http://live.lcdiocese.org/bishop-provost/writings/285-bishop-provost-comments-on-notre-dame-university-decision.html LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042807.html
Bishop David Ricken - Green Bay, WI
Statement: http://www.thecompassnews.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=345:notre-dames-quandary
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Cardinal Justin Rigali - Philadelphia, PA; Chairman, USCCB Pro-Life Committee
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042803.html
Bishop Kevin Rhoades - Harrisburg, PA
Statement:http://www.catholic.org/politics/story.php?id=33146
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Bishop Alexander Sample - Marquette, MI
Statement: http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=15630
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040807.html
Bishop Michael Sheridan - Colorado Springs, CO
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051513.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Bishop Edward J. Slattery - Tulsa, OK
Statement: http://www.dioceseoftulsa.org/article.asp?nID=907
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040106.html
Bishop John Smith - Trenton, NJ
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051101.html
Bishop Richard Stika - Knoxville, TN
Statement: http://www.dioceseofknoxville.org/?news=3585&menu=1462&level=1
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09041406.html
Bishop Anthony Taylor - Little Rock, AR
Statement: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/note.php?note_id=66338251686
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09040704.html
Bishop George Thomas - Helena, MT
Statement: http://www.diocesehelena.org/thomas/050109%20letter.pdf
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09050509.html
Bishop Donald Trautman - Erie, PA
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051512.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051515.html
Bishop Robert Vasa - Baker, OR
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop Allen Vigneron - Detroi, MI
Statement: http://www.aodonline.org/AODOnline/News+++Publications+2203/Press+Releases+2303/2009+16871/090429notredame.htm
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051910.html
Bishop Michael Warfel - Great Falls-Billings, MT
Statement: http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200905011500/NEWS01/90501007
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09043009.html
Bishop Thomas Wenski - Orlando, FL
Statement: http://www.orlandodiocese.org/who_we_are/bishop_wenski/columns/200904_und.php
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042003.html
Archbishop Donald Wuerl - Washington, D.C.
Statement: http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/godingovernment/2009/04/dc_archbishop_nips_georgetown_for_biden_event.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042709.html
Bishop Emeritus John Yanta - Amarillo, TX
Statement: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051407.html
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/may/09051408.html
Bishop David Zubick - Pittsburgh, PA
Statement: http://www.pittsburghcatholic.org/newsarticles_more.phtml?id=2466
LSN: http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/apr/09042302.html%20
Sun cycle at a century low?
A projection of $1-2 trillion damage to our IT infrastructure... just what we needed right now. To remind us of our mortality, right?
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New Solar Cycle Prediction
05.29.2009
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May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."
The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.
Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC
Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."
In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.
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According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
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New Solar Cycle Prediction
05.29.2009
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May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."
The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.
Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC
Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."
In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.
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According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
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